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UFC 111: St-Pierre vs. Hardy
March 27, 2010 7 GMT
Frank Mir vs. Shane Carwin
UFC Betting Pick: Frank Mir (-160)
Bet this MMA UFC fight at Bet Fair
Interim Heavyweight Championship bout: Frank Mir (-160) vs. Shane “The Engineer” Carwin (+130)
Given that Brock Lesnar is on the mend from the bacterial infection that invaded his intestinal track, Frank Mir (21-2) will be facing off against Shane “The Engineer” Carwin (11-0) for the Interim UFC Heavyweight Championship. The winner of this bout will either face Cain Velesquez for the title or Brock Lesnar if he is well enough from his bout of diverticulitis. If you are into sports betting this is the fight to bet on. One would have thought the UFC betting lines would be farther apart, however, Mir is getting very favorable lines opening up at -160.
As with Cain Velesquez, the jury is still out on whether Carwin is as good as he is marketed to be. Velesquez was able to silent his critics with his showing against Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira at UFC 110: Nogueira vs. Velasquez but I do not believe Carwin will be able to do so against Mir as Mir has become quite the all-around fighter of late and he will use his size to his advantage in this fight. Like all wresters, Carwin utilizes his sheer strength for punching which, by the way, is not terribly technical. Mir has matured into quite the technical striker and with his recent weight gain, is able to pack a lot of power into his punches.
Mir has been working on his striking with Mark DellaGrotte, a former professional kick boxer and a trainer in Muay Thai. He has been able to teach Mir to be more technical with his striking which has greatly increased his power, proof of which was evident when Mir dismantled Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira at UFC 92: The Ultimate 2008 and at UFC 107: Penn vs. Sanchez against Cheick Kongo where he was able to set up some really effective punches. Currently within the heavyweight division, Mir has the best one-two combo with his jab cross or jab upper being quite impressive. When facing Carwin, it is likely Mir will be using the jab cross to stun Carwin for the take down.
Carwin has the better wrestling skill set but it is unlikely he will be able to use them in this fight. During his college days Carwin was a two-time NCAA Division II Wrestling National Runner-Up Heavyweight in 1996-97, and the NCAA II Wrestling Heavyweight National Champion in 1999. Not to mention he was also a two-time All-American in football for Western State. Currently he tries to keep his wrestling skills at par as a volunteer wrestling coach for the University of Northern Colorado. Given his depth on the mats Mir will attempt to nullify Carwin’s game plan by keeping this fight standing. He will stay away from the clinch and strike from the outside which is not his game. Carwin likes the straight right hand but will not be able to land it since he will try to keep his distance the entire fight.
With a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu under Nate Marquardt, Carwin has recently decided to re-do his training from the ground up as a white belt. On pure strength and power alone he should be a blue belt but when compared to someone like Mir, he is certainly out matched—especially when it comes to grappling. Mir is currently one of the best grapplers in the UFC and only after five years of training, he received his black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu from Ricardo Pires, a 4th degree black belt under Sergio Penha—this was right after his win over Tim Sylvia at UFC 48: Payback. He currently trains under Osvaldo Alves from Gracie Barra but began his jiu-jitsu under Marcos Soares from Carlson Gracie. As Soares is one of the most technical instructors in the world, he has been able to give Mir a great top game, combined with his tutelage under Alves and Pires, Mir has also been able to refine his bottom game into something to be reckoned with. Despite his background on the mats, it is unlikely Carwin will have a chance on ground. Mir is very active on the bottom and likes to attack the legs and ankles. He favours multiple submissions and Carwin just does not have the necessary skills to maneuver out of Mir’s attacks.
Bottom Line: Carwin is a big and powerful fighter who will most likely be champion one day, however, at the moment he must face Mir, a focused and dedicated fighter. Though he is not the fighter he once was, Mir has worked hard to get himself back to the top. Gone are the days when his work ethic and training practices were questioned and he has since dedicated himself to being the best mixed martial arts fighter he can be in preparation for a potential rematch with Brock Lesnar. Though Carwin is in better physical shape, he has yet to be in a fight beyond the first round. As a very muscular fighter, Carwin’s physique needs more oxygenated blood or else fatigue sets in quickly—I can see him gassing out after the second round.
Though Carwin had one impressive fight over a top heavyweight and was able to shock many with his first round KO over Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC 96: Jackson vs. Jardine, this was only one fight. The UFC is aware their heavyweight division is sparse and has attempted to pump some volume into it with the likes of up and coming stars such as Carwin. However, the question still remains if he is as good as he is marketed to be or is he all UFC hype. Unfortunately, I am willing to bet that it is the latter instead of the former.
When it comes to sports betting Mir -160 is a steal. Realistically, I would have though the lines would have been -180 or -190 in favour of Mir. The key to this fight is Mir’s increasing stand up power and technique. He will use quick punching combos to set up the takedown and once on top, he will out match Carwin in a position he does not want to be in—Mir will be able to take his back and apply the rear naked choke.
Look for Mir to Submit Carwin in the Second Round
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