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Nate "The Great" Marquardt (-310) vs. Chael Sonnen (+255)

by Stan Leung
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UFC 109: Relentless
February 6, 2010 7 GMT
Nate Marquardt vs. Chael Sonnen
UFC Betting Pick: Nate Marquardt (-310)

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Middleweight bout: Nate "The Great" Marquardt (-310) vs. Chael Sonnen (+255)

The biggest fight of the night at UFC 109 will be the middleweight bout between Nate “The Great” Marquardt (39-8-2) and Chael Sonnen (35-10). Both fighters are top level middleweights and have not disappointed fans in the past.

When comparing the statistics of Marquardt and Sonnen one would think that the betting lines would be closer than they currently are, however, the fact that Marquardt is a better grappler may have been the determining factor.

Marquardt, a three-time Middleweight King of Pancrase Champion, is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu under Ricardo Murgel and has 15 out of his 29 wins by submission. He is very good on the ground and has beaten some very good ground fighters in his career such as Demian Maia at UFC 102: Couture vs. Nogueira, Wilson Gouveia at UFC 95: Sanchez vs. Stevenson, Thales Leites at UFC 85: Bedlam, Jeremy Horn at UFC 81: Breaking Point, Anderson Silva at UFC 73: Stacked and Dean Lister at Ultimate Fight Night 8.

On the other hand Sonnen, a Greco-Roman wrester, is also a decent fighter with wins over former WEC champion Paulo Filho, former Strikeforce champion Renato Sobral, former IFL champion Dan Miller, Jason Miller, Jason Lambert, Trevor Prangley and Yushin Okami.

Since joining the UFC Marquardt has faced 9 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belts in his last 13 fights with losses to Anderson Silva, Thales Leites and Ricardo Almeida. The only fight he legitimately lost was to Silva as his loss to Leites was by point deduction and his defeat to Almeida was due to a mis-call by the referee who believed Marquardt tapped out. Despite his losses, Marquardt has quite an impressive grappling resume:

• 1999 World Vale Tudo Federation Champion
• 1999 I.M.A. Rumble In The Rockies Champion
• 1999 Bas Rutten Invitational 4 Lightweight Champion
• 2000 Ring of Fire Middleweight Champion
• 2002 Pancrase Spirit Tour Champion
• 2nd Degree Black Belt in Pancrase Mixed Martial Arts/Jiu-Jitsu

In addition to traditional Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Marquardt is also a second Degree Black Belt in Pancrase mixed martial arts/jiu-jitsu and is a member of Greg Jackson's Gaidojutsu mixed martial arts team as well as Sanae Kikuta and the GRABAKA Dojo in Japan. Overall, Marquardt is a well-rounded grappler and has a distinct advantage over Sonnen in this category.


Though Sonnen does not have the grappling game he is a better wrestler than Marquardt. He was a two time National Champion, NCAA All-American and he was a US Olympic team alternate. Even though Sonnen has the wrestling advantage in this fight Marquardt’s dominance on the ground will nullify his game. Marquardt is a very good ground fighter on his back and if Sonnen was to use his wrestling in an attempt to take Marquardt, it will be his undoing.

As his usual game will be nullified, Sonnen will resort to fighting Marquardt in a striking battle. Unfortunately for Sonnen, Marquardt is also a better striker and will use his long legs to his advantage. Marquardt has always worked on his game outside of grappling and has sought to improve his striking by combining it with kickboxing, Wing Chun and Kenpo under instructor Alistair McNiven. Though Sonnen has decent striking skills he is more of a pressure fighter than anything—he likes to push the pace and use his size and strength to bully his opponents. The difference with his next fight is that he will not be able to intimidate Marquardt. Marquardt has the striking advantage and grappling advantage and it is only a matter of time before Marquardt is able to KO Sonnen.

Bottom Line: Sonnen has a well-rounded skill set and he is good at a lot of things, but not great at anything. He is a pressure fighter and is able to win fights because of his tenacity—he has four decision victories in his last five outings. Of his 24 victories, Sonnen has had 15 of them go to the decision, which proves he can fight but does not tend to overwhelm his opponents. Marquardt on the other hand can fight from anywhere.
He has most of his wins by submission and has seven wins by KO and has only lost eight fights in his career—five by decision , two by submission and one by KO. If Sonnen is to stand a chance in this fight he will need to outwork Marquardt as he does not have the grappling nor striking power to beat Marquardt outright.

Sonnen will try to keep this fight standing as his last few losses in MMA have come by submission to high level grapplers. When Sonnen faced such opponents in the past, it took away from his wrestling game and he was forced to resort to striking. However, Marquardt is a very effective striker against whom Sonnen cannot defend.

This fight will most likely go to a decision which is the perfect prop bet to make. The sports betting lines are pretty steep at -310 but Marquardt has the advantage in almost all areas and the areas in which he does not dominate will be nullified by his dominate grappling.

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