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UFC 109: Relentless
February 6, 2010 7 GMT
Mostapha Al-turk vs. Rolles Gracie
UFC Betting Pick: Rolles Gracie
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Heavyweight bout: Mostapha Al-turk vs. Rolles Gracie
As a mixed martial arts purist I am pleased to see that a member of the Gracie family is making a return to the UFC octagon. When I say a “Gracie”, I am referring to a member of the family, other than Royce, who founded Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Rolles Gracie Jr. (3-0) is a second degree black belt in Gracie Jiu-Jitsu and the son of Rolls Gracie, one of the pioneers of this style of martial arts.
Killed in a hang gliding accident in 1981, Rolls Gracie has been accredited with influencing the likes of Rickson, Royler, Carlos Jr., Rilion and Crolin Gracie and is widely considered among one of the best jiu-jitsu fighters ever. His son, Rolles, has a quite a reputation to live up to and will be under the watchful eye of many when he faces Mostapha Al-turk (11-5) in his UFC debut.
This is the perfect fight for Gracie as he will be entering into match with the unremarkable Al-turk. With the exception of Renzo, who would fight anyone, anytime, the Gracie family has been known to evade or hand pick their fights and it is speculated that the family may have requested an “easy” match for Renzo.
The UFC betting lines have not been released as of yet but mostly likely Gracie will be the online betting favourite. His advantage is only due to his family name and the lines will be greater than they should be for a fighter of his calibre—personally, I would set the lines at -180 for Gracie and wager on this fight at the last minute. Al-turk will also see many last minutes bets as there are those who believe the Gracie dynasty to be overrated and those who will discount Gracie’s experience of three MMA fights. Nevertheless, whatever you do, place your coin on Gracie regardless of the odds.
Al-turk is a decent grappler but has nowhere near the skills Gracie has. Gracie is a second degree black belt and hails from the most famous grappling family in the world. Though Al-turk was the ADCC European Champion in 2005 and recently the British Cage Rage Heavyweight before signing a four fight deal with the UFC, he is only among the many good fighters of MMA, not the great. Despite the fact that Al-turk has some decent grappling skills, it is unlikely he can tap out a Gracie at their own game. In all likelihood this fight will go to the ground and once it hits the mat, it will be over quite quick. It should be noted that Al-turk was only the ADCC European Champion and not an actually ADCC champion, as there is considerable difference between the two. Gracie has participated in the ADCC and has faced the best of the best in grappling. In the 2007 Absolute division Gracie lost to eventual winner Marcelo Garcia but won a silver medal in the heavyweight division against Fabricio Werdum.
Many believe Al-turk will be the dominate striker in this battle. Though he will have the advantage, it is not as great as most think. Of his eleven MMA wins Al-turk has six by KO and two by submission with punches. In reality he has only won eight bouts by striking and his victories were not against the most talented of fighters—TUF fighter James McSweeney and Mark Kerr among them. Though Kerr is a former ADCC champion and former pound for pound fighter he has really let himself go as of late and is not the fighter he once was.
Does Al-turk have what it takes to KO Gracie? Yes. Will he? No. The reason being is that Gracie is a better grappling that Al-turk which will force him to keep his distance from Gracie for the duration. Unfortunately Al-turk will only have kicks as his way to inflict damage and as he is a puncher, his kicks are relatively weak. He is a dirty boxer and inside fighter but the awareness of Gracie’s grappling ability will keep Al-turk on the outside which is not his striking game.
Bottom Line: This is not Denver, Colorado in 1993 and the first UFC fight ever. The Gracies do not dominate mixed martial arts nor do they grappling for that matter. Al-turk is a slightly better all-round fighter and has more experience in MMA than Rolles Gracie, however, Gracie has sought to do what most others in his distinguished family have failed to do in the past—Gracie has worked on his game outside of grappling. He currently trains at Jackson’s Submission Fighting with the best trainer in MMA today, Greg Jackson, who will no doubt formulate a good game plan for this match. Al-turk on the other hand does not come from a good camp and will not be as strategically prepared for this fight as Gracie.
Gracie also has a plethora of fighters to help him train for this bout and regularly rolls with the likes of UFC fighter Keith Jardine, former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Rashad Evans, former WEC Welterweight Champion Carlos Condit, former King of Pancrase Nate Marquardt, undefeated UFC heavyweight title contender Shane Carwin, former UFC Heavyweight Champion Andrei Arlovski as well as Jon Jones. Another fighter that also trains at Jackson’s camp and who undoubtedly has been able to help Gracie is James McSweeney who faced Al-turk at Cage Rage 27 - Step Up.
In most cases a fight between a striker and grappler results in a win by the grappler. Though Al-turk can strike, he does not have the ability nor skill to overwhelm or hurt Gracie. Gracie is 6 foot 4 and 242 pounds and if he wants to take someone to the ground, he will.
Look for Gracie to Submit Al-turk with First Round Rear Naked Choke
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