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Mike “Quick” Swick (-240) vs Paulo Thiago (+180)

by Stan Leung
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UFC 109: Relentless
February 6, 2010 7 GMT
Mike Swick vs Paulo Thiago
UFC Betting Pick: Paul Thiago (+180)

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Welterweight bout: Mike “Quick” Swick (-240) vs Paulo Thiago (+180)

If there is one underdog bet to make at UFC 109: Relentless, it is for Paulo Thiago (12-1). Thiago is coming into this fight as a fairly big underdog against Mike “Quick” Swick (17-3) who opened up on most online sports betting sites at -240.

When examining the lines one needs to ask why the big spread—Swick is a decent fighter but not anywhere nearly as good as the UFC makes him out to be. He was slated to be in line for a shot at the UFC welterweight title versus George St Pierre (no idea why) but this opportunity evaporated with his loss to Dan Hardy at UFC 105: Couture vs. Vera.

As the welterweight division is dominated by St Pierre and no other, the UFC has attempted to market or promote others to give this division some perceived depth. Oftentimes the fighter does not have the skill nor are they even of the same caliber as St Pierre—Swick is such an example. As a former contestant on the Ultimate Fighter reality show and under contract with the UFC since 2005, Swick is well known on the betting circuit as his good looks and persona have worked very well for him in conjunction with the marketing the UFC has put behind him. On the other hand, Thiago is a relative unknown and his accomplishments in the UFC only consist of a KO win against Josh Koscheck at UFC 95: Sanchez vs. Stevenson and a decision loss against Swick’s teammate Jon Fitch at UFC 100.

Up until now Swick has fought some good but not great fighters such as Jonathan Goulet at UFC: Fight for the Troops, Marcus Davis at UFC 85: Bedlam, Josh Burkman at UFC Fight Night 12, David Loiseau at UFC 63: Hughes vs Penn, Joe Riggs at UFC 60: Hughes vs. Gracie and Steve Vigneault at UFC 58: USA vs Canada. None of these guys are top rate and Swick has yet to dominate a fight as proven by the fact that five out his last nine fights have gone to a decision. The one top fighter he has faced was Yushin Okami at UFC 69: Shootout of which he lost by decision. If he is to be a contender for the 170 pound title, one is hard pressed to find a reason as to why he is not dominating the “average” fighter.


Swick has decent striking skills but so does Thiago. Most people tend to think of him as a grappler but he has very good power in his strikes. He is fast and can strike but will not want to get too close to Thiago who is a black belt in both judo and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Swick is built as a middleweight but has moved down to welterweight and in most cases is the taller fighter. Though slighter shorter at 5 foot 11, Thiago has a stalky frame and will not be easily intimidated. The consensus believes Swick will have the striking advantage however, Thiago trades punches with some of he best strikers in the game. He trains out of Team Black House in Brazil with Anderson Silva (Current UFC Middleweight Champion), Lyoto Machida (Current UFC Light Heavyweight Champion), Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira (Former Pride FC heavyweight champion and former UFC Interim Heavyweight Champion), Jose Aldo (Current WEC Featherweight Champion), Paulo Filho (Former WEC Middleweight Champion), grappling expert Nino "Elvis" Schembri, heavy striker Junior dos Santos, and world Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu grappling champion Andre Galvao. Though more powerful, but not as fast nor technical, Thiago will be more than prepared to face Swick’s strikes.


It is more than likely this fight will go to the ground and the stronger grappler in this match will win the fight. As with striking, Thiago also trains with some of the best grapplers in the world. Black House was formed by former Brazilian Top Team member and black belt Carlos Barreto, Jorge Guimaraes and Rogerio Camoes. Brazilian Top Team grappling is based on the Carlson Gracie style—aggressive and top dominating. Swick has decent ground skills but will be overwhelmed by this aggressive style and once Thiago gains top position he will be unable to break free. Even though Swick trains out of one of the best MMA clubs—American Kickboxing Academy, their focus is more on striking and wrestling. Grappling is overseen by Dave Camarillo at AKA who has developed his own form of jiu-jitsu— Guerilla Jiu-Jitsu, especially geared for the MMA. When compared to the Carlson Gracie style, Guerilla Jiu-Jitsu is relative “loose” and will not be effective in this fight.

 
Bottom Line: Swick has never fought a high level grappler—in fact, he has never fought a black belt in jiu-jitsu. The UFC has always hand picked matches for him with fighters of average or equal skill which has resulted in a decent MMA record for Swick.

As in his last loss to Dan Hardy at UFC 105: Couture vs. Vera, Swick is once again stepping in for an injured fighter. This time it is for Josh Koscheck who pulled out of the bout after an undisclosed injury. It will be interesting to see if Swick will be mentally and physically prepared to face Thiago as one wonders if the fact that he was a replacement at UFC 105 caused him to be easily rocked by Hardy and that he appeared to be uncomfortable competing toe-to-toe with the Brit.

In terms of online betting this is the perfect bet to make. Not to underestimate Thiago’s striking, but it will be his ground game that will win this fight as Swick will not be able to handle a grappling battle. If one was to examine his fight with Hardy, it was evident he was able to confuse Swick with his takedowns. Once Swick is thrown off his striking game plan he is easy prey. Thiago will expose Swick and control the fight, but the threat of a grappling match should be enough to distract Swick from the start.

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