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UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
January 2, 2010 7 GMT
Rashad Evans vs. Thiago Silva
UFC Betting Pick: Rashad Evans (-270)
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Light Heavyweight bout: Rashad Evans (-210) vs. Thiago Silva (+175)
It is unfortunate that Rashad "Sugar" Evans (15-1-1) will not be facing off against his TUF 10 coach, Quinton “Rampage” Jackson anytime soon as he is now busy filming the A Team movie. Instead he will be fighting Thiago Silva (15-1) who may pose a bigger challenge to Evans than most people think. Evans will now have to contend with a decent all round fighter.
Though I believe Evans will win this fight I am not in favour of the sports betting odds for this match. Silva opened up at +160 but I think the lines should be a lot closer as the -195 UFC betting line given to Evans is a little off base. The Ultimate Fighter reality show gave Evans exposure to the general populous which makes him more recognizable outside the UFC octagon and betting for MMA has never been about trends nor ability but more about marketing. As Evans has gotten more general exposure as of late, Evans gets more favourable betting lines.
As for Thiago Silva (15-1) this upcoming fight with Evans will be his biggest test yet—is he or is he not an upper echelon fighter? Once a member of the renowned Chute Boxe Academy, Silva now trains with established fighting staple, American Top Team. Regardless, one thing is for certain, Silva can fight—it just needs to be determined whether he can keep pace along side the best. The only time Silva faced a top level fighter, Lyoto Machida in UFC 94: St-Pierre vs. Penn 2, he was KO’ed in the first round. But his impressive KO over Keith Jardine in UFC 102: Couture vs. Nogueira, earned him some credibility, which will be on the line when he faces Evans.
When it comes to striking, Silva is the better striker. He is known for his kicks and punches and he is very aggressive in his forward attack—this will pose some problems for Evans. The only advantage Evans has is that Silva is not patient. He likes to come forward perhaps too often which can put him in a vulnerable situation. Though Evens may not have too much skill when it comes to striking, he is a smart fighter—he is known to be patient and likes to time his strikes. Evans uses a lot of head movements and tries to fake his opponent to throw strikes. Once his opponents fall for his fake, he will counter attack. A prime example is Chuck Liddell in UFC 88: Breakthrough. Evans was patient and waited for Liddell to close in for a punch, then he counter attacked and was able to KO Liddell. Silva is more aggressive than Liddell and will press the action which will leave him vulnerable. Evans likes to jive and juke his body when he fights and in his earlier days Evans was known to be way overboard in terms of body movement. Now that he has become more seasoned, he has learned to use his body language to his advantage. Evans will be able to fake Silva into a position where he will be able to hurt him.
Silva has very good Muay Thai kicks and will be able to land a few decent blows onto Evans, however, Evans’ patience will come into play once again and he will be able to bail Silva into a low kick and of which he will catch and throw with the straight right hand as he did with Forrest Griffin at UFC 92: The Ultimate 2008. If one was to watch that fight again, one would notice how patient and calculating Evans was in that match. He prefers to risk putting himself in bad positions than go in prematurely for the kill. The same cannot be said for Silva who is an aggressive striker that likes to take risks. Though Silva is a technically better striker than Evans, Evans is the smarter striker, and that will make the difference.
When it comes to grappling, Silva is stronger technically. He has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has better skills in the grappling department, however, it will be very hard for Silva to take Evans down as wrestling will nullify Silva’s grappling and jiu-jitsu advantage in this fight. Evans attended Niagara County Community College, where he entered the wrestling program and won the National Junior College Championship in the 165 lb (75 kg) category in 2000. He then transferred to Michigan State University, competing in the 174 lb (79 kg) weight class. He started at Michigan State for three years and was one of only four people to ever defeat wrestling legend Greg Jones.
Though Silva is a black belt he has never used his jiu-jutsu in a fight. His base for fighting is Muay Thai while Evans’s is wrestling. The wrestler in this match will use his striking to set up takedowns for a ground and pound but Muay Thai fighter will not use his striking to set up his grappling—this is the biggest difference between the two fighters. Though Silva has better individual all-round skills sets such as striking and grappling, he has yet to put them together for an overall MMA game. That is the difference between a skilled fighter and mixed martial arts fighter.
Bottom Line: Both fighters come from great MMA camps but Evans trains with Greg Jackson who is the best trainer in MMA today. Jackson will formulate a game plan for Evans based on his past losing experience with Keith Jardine. Silva KO’ed Jardine with a left hook and ground and pound stopping the fight at 1:35 minutes during the first round of UFC 102. Jackson will not make the same mistake twice. Evans is a very smart fighter who will use his corner to his advantage, which includes following his trainer’s plan. Though American Top Team is one of the best camps in the world, they lack a technical component for their fighters to bring into a fight.
Even though I do not like the UFC betting odds, I would still favour Evans to win this fight. Evans has the extra motivation for this bout as Dana White was quoted as saying that if Evans could defeat Silva at UFC 108, then he would go on to face Quinton "Rampage" Jackson.
Evans is a notoriously slow fighter who likes to wait for opportunity. It is usually not until the second round that he starts to pick up the fight which will frustrate the pressure fighter Silva. Expect to see Evans making his move in the third round. A good UFC prop bet to make is for this fight to go into the third round.
Look Look for Rashad Evans to Outthink Thiago Silva for a Victory
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