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Tyson Griffin (-345) vs. Marcus Aurelio (+275)

by Stan Leung
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UFC 86: Jackson vs. Griffin
Saturday July 5, 2008 7:00 PM
Tyson Griffin vs. Marcus Aurelio
UFC Betting Pick: Marcus Aurelio

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UFC Lightweight fight: Tyson Griffin vs. Marcus Aurelio

This will be the biggest upset of UFC 86 Jackson vs. Griffin. Tyson Griffin is a very very good fighter but Marcus "Maximus" Aurelio (16-5) will beat Griffin for a nice payday at +275 at most online sports betting sites.

Honestly, I do not know why Griffin is such a huge favorite. I would think that this fight would be closer in the UFC betting lines but at -345 you have to bet on Aurelio who is more experienced, a better grappler and has underestimated striking ability.

Yes Tyson Griffin is 11 and 1 and has great striking and wrestling skills but he is not as great as striker as most people think. His wrestling abilities are among the best in the 155 light weight division and he has fought and beaten some very good lightweight like Gleison Tibau at UFC 81: Breaking Point, Thiago Tavares at UFC 76: Knockout, Clay Guida at UFC 72: Victory and Duane Ludwig. He also has the only victory with an impressive TKO third round stoppage over top pound for pound fighter Urijah Faber.

By all account most people think that Griffin will just roll through Aurelio but if you examine Griffin’s last 4 fights they have been by decision. Yes he overpowers fighters with his wresting skills but it also shows that he does not dominate fighters as much as people think. He is a classic wrestler under Randy Couture and Xtreme Couture and he has the ability to score take down and control points versus Aurelio.

In this fight Griffin will be able to take Aurelio down with ease as Marcus is very susceptible to being taken down. However, this plays into Aurelio’s game plan since Griffin is a better striker. On his back Marcus Aurelio is all-world and one of the best in the division. Aurelio trains with American Top Team and fights primarily using Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and is a black belt in BJJ. While in Brazil, Marcus competed with the Gi, and defeated the legendary Royler Gracie. Many might think that he will be a push over in this fight but in the ZST Grand Prix Tournament in 2004, he defeated Imanari by decision, defeated Morkevicius by triangle choke, and defeated Rich Clementi by breaking his nose and forced him to tap out; all in the same night. Marcus also pulled off a shocking upset over the #1 Lightweight in the World, Takanori Gomi at PRIDE - Bushido 10. Aurelio defeated Gomi by putting him to sleep by katagatme choke in the first round.

When is comes to experience, Aurelio has the advantage as he has fought in all sorts of tournaments and organizations like, ZST-Japan, HOOK n’ SHOOT, KOTC USMMA, WEFC, and Mass Destruction. Aurelio has been around MMA much longer and has more rind experience as he will be able to withstand the initial onslaught

Most online bettors will look at Aurelio’s lost to Clay Guida at UFC 74 - Respect while Tyson Griffin beat Guida. If you look at that fight Aurelio should have won that fight versus Guida and many say that Guida should have beaten Griffin so that fight is a non factor when making your bet for this mixed martial arts fight.

Bottom Line: Tyson should be a favorite in this fight but Aurelio is by no means the huge underdog, as most online sports betting sites have put forth. Tyson has fought better fighters and been on a roll and is in contention for a top ten placemnt but it also has has a great storyline for a big upset as well. Aurelio has the definite advantage on the ground and he will be able to submit him. If Griffin keeps this fight standing he will be able to land better shots but the wrestler in him will want to take him down. He will try to ground and pound him out but I see Aurelio being able to submit him. Griffin is a very aggressive fighter and once in a top position he will throw and leave his hands vulnerable to an arm triangle, triangle choke or arm bar.

Griffin is a beast with better striking, wreslting and aggressivness and will be controlling most of this fight in the stand up and take down points but I do see an Aurelio victory. As most online sportsbooks have him listed as a +275 this is an underdog bet I can not pass up.

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